top of page
  • Writer's pictureEdward Ballsdon

FED or MPC – Who will blink first?

Updated: Dec 22, 2023

An analysis of financial market expectations of future FED, ECB, MPC and BOJ monetary policy and comparing them to the macro backdrop of each economic area.


Whilst projected ECB and BOJ policy decisions seem justified, this research shows why the market's expectations for MPC seem far too dovish, which are founded on the relatively quick transmission of monetary policy to the economy and the already collapsed credit metrics which suggest a weak disinflationary economic environment.


The research concludes with an analysis of UK and US yield curves and the spread between the two, demonstrating some interesting opportunities.

7 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Are Central banks causing inflation....?

Research Content Following the deep dive into US PCE inflation, as well as into the Canadian and Australian economies, it is clear that tighter monetary policy is linked to housing rental inflation. T

Rear view driving is dangerous.

Research Content Following the NFP, which delivered another outsized move in bond yields, this note examines some issues that are impacting markets and others in the background that are likely to have

BoJ still in a Straitjacket

RESEARCH CONTENT This report discusses the market speculation about when the BoJ would tighten policy and take rates positive. It notes that there has not been much volatility in JGBs or $Yen – they h

bottom of page