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  • Writer's pictureEdward Ballsdon

FED or MPC – Who will blink first?

Updated: Dec 22, 2023

An analysis of financial market expectations of future FED, ECB, MPC and BOJ monetary policy and comparing them to the macro backdrop of each economic area.

Whilst projected ECB and BOJ policy decisions seem justified, this research shows why the market's expectations for MPC seem far too dovish, which are founded on the relatively quick transmission of monetary policy to the economy and the already collapsed credit metrics which suggest a weak disinflationary economic environment.

The research concludes with an analysis of UK and US yield curves and the spread between the two, demonstrating some interesting opportunities.

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