Edward Ballsdon
INVESTMENT STRATEGIST · GLOBAL MACRO & DEBT CYCLES · 30 YEARS
For three decades, I have built and refined a proprietary macro framework centred on private and public sector debt cycles — using them to forecast inflation, interest rates, credit conditions, and currency trends across the world's major economies.
My approach combines fundamental debt cycle analysis with monetary and fiscal policy assessment and technical analysis — giving portfolio managers both the strategic context and the tactical timing to act on macro themes with conviction.
TRACK RECORD - PATTERN RECOGNITION ACROSS GEOGRAPHIES AND CYCLES
Rates & Duration
Japanification of the US & Europe
Identified this as a defining macro theme well ahead of mainstream recognition, with direct implications for rates, duration, and growth assets.
Credit & Banking
US, Irish, Italian & Spanish Banking Crisis
Foresaw these through direct involvement in the 1990s Japanese and Scandinavian banking crises — recognising the same overleveraging playing out a decade later.
Real Estate
US & European real estate stress
First-hand experience of the 1991/92 UK construction sector collapse provided the template for anticipating property market difficulties in the mid-2000s.
Sovereign Risk
G20 leveraging & sovereign vulnerability
Tracked the leveraging of smaller G20 economies and its implications for sovereign risk, capital flows, and currency vulnerability.
COVERAGE UNIVERSE
USA
Eurozone
Germany
France
Italy
UK
Japan
Canada
Australia
Sweden
AREA OF FOCUS
Sovereign & Private Sector Debt Dynamics
Inflation & Credit Cycles
Fixed Income & FX Strategy
Fiscal & Monetary policy
Technical & Sentiment analysis
Work with me
I work with portfolio managers at hedge funds and mutual funds, providing macro research and investment themes across G10 fixed income and foreign exchange markets. Get in touch to discuss research needs or to request sample work.