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  • Writer's pictureEdward Ballsdon

UK "Poisoned Chalice"

Following last week’s piece showing how global macro trends are leading to big political changes (Boiling Frog), this note looks at the UK macro environment. The newly elected Labour Party, which achieved a huge parliamentary majority, has made far reaching promises to 80% of the voting population that did not directly elect it. This note shows that the Labour Party has very limited firepower to deliver these promises, so they will have to rely on much harder to implement policies of reform.

 

Forward markets currently price a very unlikely scenario given macro trends, especially when compared to the forward markets in other countries. This research note concludes by highlighting some interesting outright, curve and cross market opportunities.

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