top of page
  • Writer's pictureEdward Ballsdon

The Boiling Frog

An overview of the key long term themes that are driving macro views.

 

Highlights of the global private and public leverage trends of the last 40 years and the important changes that have occurred in the last 15 years, which are now accelerating. These are the macro oil tankers that do not turn around quickly and which have important consequences for economic growth, inflation and asset price valuations.

 

It seems clear that the economic data is beginning to reflect the consequences of these underlying trends – the next stage is for forward markets to adjust to new expectations.


This should then lead to thoughts about how policy makers will react, which should be determined by historical precedent, political preferences and Central Bank goals.

 

PS Attached also

  • an old article written in 2011 which explained why the wise Jews did not leave Germany in 1920s – it’s a reminder to look at interconnected events to determine the underlying trend.

  • Peter Orszag’s warnings in 2011 of the consequences from increasing US political polarisation, which seems rather topical given the current swings in voter preferences in multiple elections.

Recent Posts

See All

Curve trades?

This note discusses why curve trades have been avoided until now, and how market momentum and economic data have recently changed opening up opportunities for new curve trades. There is also an analys

UK "Poisoned Chalice"

Following last week’s piece showing how global macro trends are leading to big political changes (Boiling Frog), this note looks at the UK macro environment. The newly elected Labour Party, which achi

Updated investment themes

Report updating exisiting macro investment themes, including: Global bank equity indices and bank senior and sub credit indices, and how they react in rate cut cycles Global real yield relative value

Comments


bottom of page