top of page
  • Writer's pictureEdward Ballsdon

Market Observations

Published 7 Dec 2023


RESEARCH CONTENT


The bullish trend reversal signals for 10 year bonds are different from those formed over the last 12 months

The target set by the head and shoulders pattern in oil has been met. New supports are identified

Base metals are performing very poorly, with Copper, Aluminium and Nickel all sitting on trap door supports

That, together with Soft Agri Index which tends to mean revert over time, could bring a quick change to disinflation expectations for the goods components in inflation baskets.

Forward inflation swap curves have bull steepened.

Whilst long end nominal forwards have declined, forward inflation rates make forward yields still attractive

A final comment on credit quality, something that moves slowly over time but in full vision and which should be monitored.

11 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Update on France

An update to the 12Dec23 research on France which concluded that French OATs were at risk of a revaluation: https://www.thegreyfirehorse.com/post/french-flying-red-flags In this research, there are up

US Inflation

Whilst the lower than headline print was very welcome, this research demonstrates the significant bifurcation of inflation rates of the various components in the CPI basket.

The Yield Curve and "This time is different"

This research analyses the ability of the yield curve to forewarn a recession. In conclusion, this time IS and IS NOT different: It’s not the yield curve that predicts recessions, it’s the rise in bot

Comments


bottom of page