Published 7 Dec 2023
The bullish trend reversal signals for 10 year bonds are different from those formed over the last 12 months
The target set by the head and shoulders pattern in oil has been met. New supports are identified
Base metals are performing very poorly, with Copper, Aluminium and Nickel all sitting on trap door supports
That, together with Soft Agri Index which tends to mean revert over time, could bring a quick change to disinflation expectations for the goods components in inflation baskets.
Forward inflation swap curves have bull steepened.
Whilst long end nominal forwards have declined, forward inflation rates make forward yields still attractive
A final comment on credit quality, something that moves slowly over time but in full vision and which should be monitored.