Market Observations

(Published 12 October 2023)

RESEARCH CONTENT CPI

Core, Burden and Choice inflation

Shelter inflation

Mom trend vs 10 yr averages

Basket still bifurcated between +3% inflation and deflation

Recent Economic Data Z Scores provide fuel for both Bulls AND Bears (above)

FED Dilemma

Inflation

Employment

Many market participants are aware of how the Fed has really acted in the past, and what drove those actions - these past traits are really important given today's markets and valuations.

Yields and Curves

2s10s yield curve correlations

The different price sentiment between the short and long end

The UK market and inflation markets are the stand outs, potentially offering interesting opportunities