Sweden - an in-depth analysis
RESEARCH CONTENT A comprehensive research report on the macroeconomic situation in Sweden, which has one of the most indebted private...
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SUMMARIES OF PUBLISHED PAPERS
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April Research Summary
Monthly report on following issues researched in April: Macroeconomics - Public and Private Sector Debt Trends: Opposite Dynamics -...
Japan – The window is only ajar for the BoJ
RESEARCH CONTENT There is a lot of market discussion about when the BoJ, the last Central Bank to maintain negative rates, will tighten...
Japan - shining a light on the future
RESEARCH CONTENT: In the light of the recent Japanese downward inflation surprise, this note updates Japanese government and private...
BoJ still in a Straitjacket
RESEARCH CONTENT This report discusses the market speculation about when the BoJ would tighten policy and take rates positive. It notes...
French flying Red Flags
RESEARCH CONTENT France matters. It matters because its economic path has been divergent to Germany's, steadily growing to a level of...
Anatomy of an "Expansionary Banking Cycle"
RESEARCH CONTENT Banking sectors in various countries have seen a tripling and quadrupling of balance sheets post GFC. This detailed...
CANADebt
Published 10 Nov 23 RESEARCH CONTENT Deep dive into the Canadian economy and financial markets highlighting Debt Dynamics Public sector...
Bond Markets doing an equity "Earnings Beat"
RESEARCH CONTENT The strong US bond rally kicked off immediately after the US Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement, which was then...
PMI vs Credit Metrics
RESEARCH CONTENT Analysis showing that whilst PMIs dropped in 4Q2022 in many developed countries, private sector credit growth remained...
The BOJ’s debt "strait jacket”
RESEARCH CONTENT An ex-BOJ member has suggested that the BOJ could raise short end rates, but the hurdle to raise long end is high due to...
US Government Debt Sustainability
RESEARCH CONTENT Calculations showing the staggering amounts that US Domestic investors will have to invest in USTs to fund the US...
Debt Sustainability and the Central Bank Credit Cycle
RESEARCH CONTENT (backed by data and charts): US debt serving costs have risen rapidly and are now an important proportion of government...
Yield Curves and Government Finances
RESEARCH CONTENT Pre and post GFC, the Japanese credit cycle has been a useful guide to understand the future credit cycle and monetary...
Eurozone "Crowding Out"
RESEARCH CONTENT: Debt Dynamics Public finances Private sector (Householders and Corporations) Inflation Trends and subtrends Inflation...
The UK rollercoaster
RESEARCH CONTENT Following decades of arguably loose monetary policy, economic leverage has substantially increased in the UK. This was...
US Debt Dynamics
RESEARCH CONTENT: HISTORICAL OBSERVATIONS A catalogue of the rise in outstanding US government debt (UST) The Treasury department...
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